The international financial system is dominated by the US. Washington has often used its clout in the international financial system to further its economic and geopolitical interests through financial sanctions. As antagonism between the US and China moves beyond trade and technology, how the US-China rivalry will play out in the new stage of international finance is a matter of great concern to the world.
China has been working on a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) since 2014, and is intensifying its efforts to internationalise the Renminbi.
On the surface it appears the CBDC will be for domestic use, but a CBDC will simplify cross border transactions. For a long time, the country has been dissatisfied with the U.S. Dollar’s (USD) ongoing role as the global reserve currency and is committed to extending its currency’s reach.
It even has an initiative to denominate international trade credit in Renminbi (RMB) rather than dollars. And the Belt and Road Initiative has seen China extend more than $1 trillion in foreign loans.
At a recent online global seminar organised by the Pangoal Institution China and the Centre for New Inclusive Asia Malaysia, experts from China, Russia, Europe and the US deliberated and disussed the issue.
One of the key speakers was Mr Ali Amirliravi, CEO and Founder of LGR Crypto Bank of Switzerland. and creator of the Silk Road Coin digital currency.
He addressed China’s vulnerability to the global financial system, and said:
“This is a very interesting question as there are a lot of factors to consider. To begin, I think it might be helpful to define China’s vulnerabilities specifically. We are speaking about international finance here (it’s a very complex and politically charged system) and since the second world war, the space has been more or less dominated by the interests of the US. We see this in the global dominance that the US dollar has held for the last 70 years. We see that in the steps that Washington has taken to ensure that the dollar acts as the global reserve currency - particularly in industries like the global oil trade. Up until quite recently, it was probably difficult to even imagine a global financial system that was not directly supported by the US dollar.
By virtue of this global reliance, the American political machine was given significant power to wield in international finance. The best evidence of this can probably be found in the history of crippling economic sanctions that the US has enacted against specific states - the impacts of which can be devastating. In a nutshell, it’s an asymmetrical power dynamic wherein the US has carved out a significant negotiating advantage over other countries.
Put it this way: when the global economic system is built to fit the domestic currency of a specific state, it is easy to see how that state would be able to tailor certain policies and promote behaviours that would further their own geopolitical interests - this has been the American reality for the last few decades.
But things change. Technology advances, political relationships evolve, and international trade and money flows continue to expand and grow - now incorporating more people, countries and businesses than ever before. All of these factors (economic, political, technological, societal) work to shape the reality of the international order, and we are now at a place where a serious discussion about a replacement for the US dollar is warranted - that’s why I am excited to be here speaking about this issue today, it’s really time to have the conversation.
So, now that we have set the scene, let’s tackle the question: could the creation of a digital Renminbi address the vulnerability and asymmetry that China is dealing with in international finance? I really don’t think this is a simple yes or no answer here, in fact I think it is valuable to consider the question with a broad outlook on development over the next few years.
Starting with the short term, let’s put the question like this: will the digital renminbi have significant impact internationally immediately following launch. The answer here I think is no, and there are a few reasons for that. First of all, let’s consider the intention of the issuer, the Chinese central bank. Reports show that the initial focus of the DRMB project is domestic, the Chinese government is looking to challenge private sector digital payment methods like AliPay etc., and getting the broader population used to the idea of Central Bank-issued digital currencies powering the majority of economic transactions in the country. To put it simply, the scope of the first stage of the DRMB launch is too small and domestically focused to directly impact the international system - there just won’t be enough DRMB in circulation globally.
There is another point to consider in the short-term: voluntary acceptance. Even if stage one of the DRMB project did have an international focus and was committed to minting huge amounts of digital currency, international impact requires international use - meaning that other countries would have to voluntarily accept and support the project in the early stages. How likely is this to happen? Well it’s a bit of a mixed bag, we’ve seen a few agreements start to pop-up between China and some countries in Central Asia as well as South Korea and Russia, which outline future frameworks for DRMB acceptance and trade, however there isn’t too much in place yet. And that’s just it: before the DRMB can have international impact, there needs to be widespread international access and acceptance, and I don’t see that happening in the short-term.
Let’s move to a mid-term analysis. So imagine that phase 1 of the DRMB is complete and we have individuals and corporations in China accepting, transacting and trading it. What will phase 2 look like? I think we will start to see China expanding the scope of the DRMB project and incorporating it into their international development and infrastructure projects. If we consider the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s commitments and focus on development and investment across central Asia, Europe and parts of Africa, it is clear that there are many opportunities to promote and incentivize use of the DRMB internationally.
A great example to consider is the group of countries that make up the Silk Road area (about 70 countries). China is participating in infrastructure projects here, but it is also promoting increased trade in the area - and that means a lot of money moving cross-border. This is actually an area that my company LGR Crypto Bank is focused on - our goal is to make cross-border payments and trade finance transparent, fast and secure - and in an area with over 70 different currencies and incredibly disparate compliance requirements, this is not always an easy task.
Here is precisely where I think the DRMB could add a lot of value - in clearing up the confusion and opacity that comes with cross-border money movement and complex trade finance transactions. I believe that one way the DRMB will be marketed to China’s trade and development partners is a way to bring transparency and speed in complicated transactions and international transfers. These are real problems, especially in the multi-commodity trade business, and they can cause serious delays and business interruptions- If the Chinese government can prove that adoption of the DRMB will address these issues, then I think we will see real eagerness in the market.
At LGR Crypto Bank, we are already researching, modelling and designing our own money movement and trade finance platforms to work in harmony with digital currencies, particularly our own Silk Road Coin and the Digital Renminbi - we are ready to offer customers the best in class finance options as soon as they are made available.
When it comes to the international stage, I think that China will use its BRI as a proving ground for the DRMB in real-world commerce. By doing this, they will start to develop a network of DRMB acceptance across the Silk Road Countries and will be able to point to successful infrastructure projects as proof of the success of the Digital Renminbi. If this phase is carried out properly, I think it will create a very good foundation of DRMB acceptance that can be built on and expanded globally. The next step would likely be Europe - this is something of a natural extension of the Silk Road Area, and also ties in to the reality of increased trade between the EU and China. It’s important to note that if we consider all of the domestic economies that make up the Euro block together, it is the largest importer/exporter in the world- it would be an incredible opportunity for China to bring international attention to the DRMB and prove its capabilities in the West.
In the long-term, I do think that it is possible for the DRMB to gain high levels of international traction and achieve some level of global acceptance. Again, it will all depend on the success of the Chinese government in making the case for adoption throughout the earlier phases. The value propositions of central bank digital currencies are very clear (increased transaction speed, improved transparency, fewer middlemen, less delays, etc.), and China is certainly not the only one developing such an asset. Currently, however, China is a leader and if they can execute an expansion plan without too many issues along the way, this head-start could make it difficult for other state offerings to catch-up. Maybe not, though.
It could be that in the long-term, all states will have a sovereign digital currency - and this begs the question: in the age of digital currencies, is there still a need for a global reserve currency? I’m not sure. What would the value add be of a reserve currency when central bank digital currencies could be traded effortlessly with immediate settlement times? Maybe reserve currencies will simply become a relic of an outdated financial system.
Looking forward to the long-term, I can imagine 2 scenarios where the DRMB could alleviate China’s vulnerabilities in the international financial system:
The DRMB becomes the new world reserve currency
The notion of a world reserve currency becomes obsolete and the new economic order runs on state-backed digital currencies operating without a hierarchy.
Whatever happens, I do believe we are on the cusp of a major change in global finance. There is no doubt that digital currencies, specifically central bank digital currencies, will play a massive role in defining the new economic paradigm. I believe that China is making great moves in leading the pack on this, and I know that at LGR Crypto Bank we look forward to adopting the DRMB where we can to further optimize and expedite the money movement and trade finance solutions that we offer to our customers.
By Colin Stevens on October 14 2020 for the EU Reporter.
Russian Railways (RZD) has reported that intermodal rail freight flows on its China – Europe routes have exceeded 2019 volumes in the first nine months of the year.
RZD says that between January and September, intermodal traffic between China and Europe amounted to 387,900 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), more than 1.6...
Russian Railways (RZD) has reported that intermodal rail freight flows on its China – Europe routes have exceeded 2019 volumes in the first nine months of the year.
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Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said in a recent interview that the...
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“DSV collects...
Transport and logistics firm DSV Panalpina Corporate has introduced a new intercontinental road freight between China and Europe, offering an alternative to air, rail and sea freight.
Denmark’s DSV said the new DSV Silkway Express offers quick door-to-door transit times of 14-18 days at rates much lower than air freight.
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The country's foreign trade surged by 7.5 percent year-on-year to 8.88 trillion...
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China's top legislature is expected to pass a new export control law on Saturday, aiming to restrict the export of relevant national security-sensitive technologies that offers a "timely solution" to plug loopholes in China's regulation, as the tech war between China and the US intensifies.
The law, which will include the...
Chinese oil and gas industry experts are calling for further efforts in embracing digital technologies to increase pipelines' operating levels, as companies hope to build China's oil and gas pipelines into a unified national network and continue to carry out global projects like the China-Russia natural gas line.
The main consensus...
Chinese oil and gas industry experts are calling for further efforts in embracing digital technologies to increase pipelines' operating levels, as companies hope to build China's oil and gas pipelines into a unified national network and continue to carry out global projects like the China-Russia natural gas line.
The main consensus...
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Analysts said a drop in some food and crude oil prices led to the tamed inflation last month.Food prices increased...
China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in September, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from August's increase, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.
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The plan is being drawn up as the nation－the world's largest contributor to growth－continues to expand at an impressive pace.
The...
China is in the global spot-light as it maps out the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), which will set the tone for the country's economic and social development in the coming years.
The plan is being drawn up as the nation－the world's largest contributor to growth－continues to expand at an impressive pace.
The...
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The figure...
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In the first...
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They made the comments after the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration...
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However, Chinese experts said that there would be a possibility that the Japanese...
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"The outbreak of COVID-19 did affect the progress of our projects...
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"The outbreak of COVID-19 did affect the progress of our projects...
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Wang made the remarks in an exclusive interview with Xinhua after he held talks last week with Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan,...
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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived last week with a major delegation in Tengchong, in...
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This year of 2020 is one of special significance in the history of the world and in the history of China-Africa relations. During the year, the global outbreak of COVID-19 created enormous challenges to the process of globalization and relations between major countries.
This is also the 20th anniversary of the...
This year of 2020 is one of special significance in the history of the world and in the history of China-Africa relations. During the year, the global outbreak of COVID-19 created enormous challenges to the process of globalization and relations between major countries.
This is also the 20th anniversary of the...
China's trade with the US surged by 2 percent in renminbi terms in the first three quarters this year, according to Chinese customs data, which experts said could reflect a turnaround in the China-US trade situation and that rationality is getting the upper hand in the US government in terms...
China's trade with the US surged by 2 percent in renminbi terms in the first three quarters this year, according to Chinese customs data, which experts said could reflect a turnaround in the China-US trade situation and that rationality is getting the upper hand in the US government in terms...
Chinese technology giant Huawei said it will continue to invest in Canada betting on the country's broad development prospects, even though the company's CFO remains detained in the country.
Yan Lida, senior vice president of Huawei, told a forum themed "Canada as an Investment Destination" on Tuesday that Huawei plans to...
Chinese technology giant Huawei said it will continue to invest in Canada betting on the country's broad development prospects, even though the company's CFO remains detained in the country.
Yan Lida, senior vice president of Huawei, told a forum themed "Canada as an Investment Destination" on Tuesday that Huawei plans to...
The dollar held near three-week lows on Monday amid optimism about fiscal stimulus in the United States, while the yuan fell after China's central bank changed its policy on yuan reserves.
The dollar index was steady, having seen its biggest loss in six weeks on Friday, when investors upped their bets...
The dollar held near three-week lows on Monday amid optimism about fiscal stimulus in the United States, while the yuan fell after China's central bank changed its policy on yuan reserves.
The dollar index was steady, having seen its biggest loss in six weeks on Friday, when investors upped their bets...
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European countries were considering adding fresh travel curbs due to...
Global stocks hit five-week highs on Monday led by China’s post-holiday surge as investors bet on a steady recovery for the world’s no. 2 economy, while hopes for stimulus offset worries about rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States.
European countries were considering adding fresh travel curbs due to...
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FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in front of a drilling rig at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S....
Oil prices fell on Monday as force majeure at Libya’s largest oilfield was lifted, a Norwegian strike affecting production ended and U.S. producers began restoring output after Hurricane Delta.
FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates in front of a drilling rig at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S....
British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning, reacting to the end of a strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers as well as mild and windy weather forecasts from next week.
The day-ahead contract was 1.05 pence lower at 37.25 pence per therm at 0805 GMT. The November contract was...
British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning, reacting to the end of a strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers as well as mild and windy weather forecasts from next week.
The day-ahead contract was 1.05 pence lower at 37.25 pence per therm at 0805 GMT. The November contract was...
Gold slipped from a three-week peak on Monday as the dollar recovered some ground, but the prospect of more U.S. coronavirus relief spending and uncertainty surrounding next month’s presidential election put a floor under prices.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,925.56 per ounce at 1213 GMT, after hitting its highest...
Gold slipped from a three-week peak on Monday as the dollar recovered some ground, but the prospect of more U.S. coronavirus relief spending and uncertainty surrounding next month’s presidential election put a floor under prices.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,925.56 per ounce at 1213 GMT, after hitting its highest...
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Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.1% at $6,770.50 a tonne in official...
Copper rose to a three-week high on Monday as solid demand from top consumer China and the threat of strikes by miners in Chile pushed prices closer to 27-month highs reached in September.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.1% at $6,770.50 a tonne in official...
Chicago soybean futures rose again on Monday, trading close to the around two-year highs they hit on Friday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut estimates of U.S. supplies.
Corn rose after the USDA cut its U.S. harvest forecast while wheat firmed on weather concerns and a weaker dollar, which...
Chicago soybean futures rose again on Monday, trading close to the around two-year highs they hit on Friday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut estimates of U.S. supplies.
Corn rose after the USDA cut its U.S. harvest forecast while wheat firmed on weather concerns and a weaker dollar, which...
The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies on Friday, giving back some of the week’s gains built on increased caution over a global surge in coronavirus cases and fading prospects for a U.S. stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election.
The greenback pared some of the day’s losses after...
The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies on Friday, giving back some of the week’s gains built on increased caution over a global surge in coronavirus cases and fading prospects for a U.S. stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election.
The greenback pared some of the day’s losses after...
Global shares bounced on Friday while safe havens such as the dollar were on the defensive as investors welcomed news that drugmaker Pfizer Inc could have a coronavirus vaccine ready in the United States by the end of this year.
But concerns that a teetering recovery in the world economy could...
Global shares bounced on Friday while safe havens such as the dollar were on the defensive as investors welcomed news that drugmaker Pfizer Inc could have a coronavirus vaccine ready in the United States by the end of this year.
But concerns that a teetering recovery in the world economy could...
Oil prices edged lower on Friday, dragged down by concerns that a spike in COVID-19 cases in the United States and Europe will continue to drag on demand in two of the world’s biggest fuel-consuming regions.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including...
Oil prices edged lower on Friday, dragged down by concerns that a spike in COVID-19 cases in the United States and Europe will continue to drag on demand in two of the world’s biggest fuel-consuming regions.
OPEC+, a grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including...
British wholesale gas prices were slightly higher on Friday morning due to low wind output and oversupply.
The day-ahead contract edged up by 0.10 pence to 39.85 pence per therm by 0829 GMT.
The November contract was 0.25 pence higher at 40.25 pence per therm.
Gas-for-power consumption should remain strong and stable at...
British wholesale gas prices were slightly higher on Friday morning due to low wind output and oversupply.
The day-ahead contract edged up by 0.10 pence to 39.85 pence per therm by 0829 GMT.
The November contract was 0.25 pence higher at 40.25 pence per therm.
Gas-for-power consumption should remain strong and stable at...
Gold prices steadied in a tight range above the $1,900 an ounce level on Friday, tracking a subdued dollar, but fading chances of an U.S. stimulus agreement before the presidential election kept bullion on track for its first weekly decline in three.
Spot gold was steady at $1,907.46 per ounce by...
Gold prices steadied in a tight range above the $1,900 an ounce level on Friday, tracking a subdued dollar, but fading chances of an U.S. stimulus agreement before the presidential election kept bullion on track for its first weekly decline in three.
Spot gold was steady at $1,907.46 per ounce by...
Aluminium prices hit 17-month highs on Friday as robust demand from top consumer China, expectations of stronger growth and demand in the rest of the world and a lower dollar helped to create buying momentum.
Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.7% at $1,865 a tonne at...
Aluminium prices hit 17-month highs on Friday as robust demand from top consumer China, expectations of stronger growth and demand in the rest of the world and a lower dollar helped to create buying momentum.
Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.7% at $1,865 a tonne at...
U.S. wheat futures hit their highest in nearly six years on Friday as dry weather in key producing regions raised supply concerns, pushing the grain towards its third straight weekly gain. Corn extended a 14-months high on prospects for hefty sales to China, while soybeans also rose.
The most active wheat...
U.S. wheat futures hit their highest in nearly six years on Friday as dry weather in key producing regions raised supply concerns, pushing the grain towards its third straight weekly gain. Corn extended a 14-months high on prospects for hefty sales to China, while soybeans also rose.
The most active wheat...
