The crisis in the Middle East could affect global logistics, including the import of various products into the Russian Federation. The blocking of air transport, suspension of vessel movements, and other disruptions to supply channels increase delivery times and global costs, leading to price increases for goods such as food, jewellery, luxury cars and spare parts, and electronics. However, experts believe that business will quickly build alternative logistical chains.

The Middle East crisis is capable of disrupting the operation of global supply chains, including affecting imports to Russia. Problems with air transport, suspension of shipping, and other logistics failures lead to increased delivery times and rising costs, which will affect the prices of a number of goods. At the same time, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the ongoing events will have almost no pressure on the electronics segment.

Gadgets are not produced in the Middle East — it is rather a hub through which supplies are distributed, noted Eldar Murtazin, lead analyst at Mobile Research Group. Problems may arise only with electronics supplies to Middle Eastern countries, especially after one of the world's largest seaports was halted in the UAE, which may delay logistics and goods transportation.

"The logistical channels through which the vast majority of computers and smartphones are supplied do not pass through the airports of the UAE and neighbouring countries; they are not transported in sea containers through the Persian Gulf," said a top manager of one of the vendors.

As for imports to Russia, according to him, equipment is delivered by rail and road from China — both in transit through Kazakhstan and other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and directly via the Far East.

A representative of one of the distributors also does not expect a large-scale disruption of supplies. According to him, the main logistics are carried out by road and rail and are not connected with routes through Dubai. Cargo transit passes from China through Central Asian countries. In the case of air delivery, cargo flights from the PRC to Russia and other countries follow almost directly, he claims.

At the same time, a significant portion of Apple gadgets, including iPhones, are supplied to Russia from the UAE, a retail chain told Izvestia. Currently, there is no talk of stock reduction: only two days have passed since the start of military operations in the Persian Gulf. However, in the long term, a reduction in the supply of Apple products is possible, which may affect prices, the source believes.

"Logistics are certainly affected: there are practically no flights. How severe the tension with supplies turns out to be will depend on the duration and intensity of the fighting, as well as its geography," noted a representative of one electronics importer. According to him, by no means all of the parallel import flow passed through the UAE: the Chinese direction will continue to operate as before. However, difficulties may arise with the supply of some European equipment and other Western brands, including Apple. However, it is premature to make final forecasts — it is more advisable to wait a few days, the source added.

At the same time, rising energy prices could lead to an increase in the cost of European goods — EU countries have abandoned cheap Russian oil, Sergey Polovnikov, head of the Content-Review project, told Izvestia. But the events are unlikely to have an impact on global supplies: the Persian Gulf is a dead end from a logistics perspective, he notes. Problems are unlikely to arise with the delivery of goods from China, South-East Asia, or India, the expert predicts.

"But the UAE is one of the world's financial centres, through which settlements between manufacturers, suppliers, and buyers pass. The country's economy is among the top 10 largest in the Middle East and North Africa region, making its stability especially significant for trade flows. How this infrastructure will work if the crisis drags on for a long time is unclear," he noted.

Unlike electronics importers and manufacturers, participants in other markets are not so optimistic. The current situation could lead to a partial redistribution of flows between global jewellery hubs, believes Ksenia Kostina, a resident of the Dubai Diamond Exchange (DDE) and gemologist. At the same time, a global shortage is not expected because of this, the expert believes. According to her, the negative effect will manifest in rising costs and short-term price volatility for the goods.

Coloured gemstones, diamonds, jewellery, watches, various luxury items, as well as niche cosmetics and perfumes come to Russia through the United Arab Emirates, she reminded. According to her, many supplies of these goods occur between countries using re-export schemes. Dubai is one of the world's largest gemstone trading hubs, Kostina noted. The total diamond turnover of this region is about 180 million carats per year, the expert estimated. Supplies of gemstones and products from the UAE to the Russian Federation are measured in "tens of millions of dollars annually," she added.

Against the backdrop of increasing tension around Iran, part of the supplies may shift from direct air routes to combined schemes with additional transit countries, Ksenia Kostina believes. In her opinion, delivery times will increase, and High End products may rise in price by 5–15%. At the same time, no serious restriction on the supply of gemstones and products made from them is expected on the Russian market in the near future, she noted.

Difficulties may arise not only with exports from Persian Gulf countries but also from Iran. A significant amount of food — kiwis, tomatoes, cucumbers, various nuts and dried fruits, as well as small batches of dairy products — comes to Russia from there, said Mikhail Lachugin, an independent consultant to retail chain suppliers and founder of the Product Media channel. According to him, in 2022, according to the latest published data from the UN Comtrade database, the export volume from the Islamic Republic to Russia was about $691.9 million. From this amount, fruits and nuts occupied $186.55 million, while vegetables and root crops occupied $82.04 million. These two categories accounted for approximately 39% of all Iranian exports to the Russian Federation.

Retailers may face short-term difficulties and increased costs amid changes in logistical chains, the expert admitted. At the same time, supply disruptions from this country are unlikely to lead to "global difficulties" on the Russian market, he believes. According to the expert, domestic companies have long learned to work in such force majeure conditions and have the opportunity to choose suppliers both inside the country and abroad.

"Vegetable and fruit supplies to Russia, at least from Israel, were significant. These include strawberries, early potatoes, avocados, and others. A large amount of dried fruits and nuts were supplied from Iran to Russia. But the market reacts very quickly: where a shortage appears, a new supplier arises. Another thing is that Iran and Israel were located relatively close to Russia, so supplies from other more distant countries will certainly cost more due to higher logistics costs," Leonid Kholod, former Deputy Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation and Doctor of Economic Sciences, explained to Izvestia.

He noted that these countries mainly supplied seasonal fruits and vegetables, so they will not strongly affect the Russian market or prices in general, and the situation will begin to level out with the appearance of domestic products.

The current geopolitical situation does not affect the range and prices in Russian retail chains, Stanislav Bogdanov, Chairman of the Presidium of AKORT, told Izvestia. According to him, large retailers have built a developed, diversified supply system from different countries, which allows for the rapid redistribution of volumes between suppliers if necessary.

"We see no prerequisites for supply restrictions or price increases," he stressed.

It is likely that the restriction of supplies to Russia will affect certain car models and auto parts, believes an Izvestia source in the cross-border trade segment.

"Most likely, this will primarily affect the luxury segment. As for spare parts, the waiting time for delivery of individual items may increase by two to three weeks, but new logistical routes are likely to appear soon," he noted.

Kristina Tantsyura, CEO and managing partner of SKY Consulting Group, explained that the UAE is mainly used for ordering and paying for spare parts, while the supplies themselves often pass bypassing the Emirates as a transit hub. While military operations are underway in Iran, this corridor is closed, but an alternative will be found, she believes.

If supplies from the UAE are closed, the cargo flow will redistribute mainly to Turkey and China, believes Anton Shashkov, head of the assortment development department at Rossko, Russia's largest distributor of auto parts and auto goods. All supplies from the Emirates will pause until the end of the conflict, and funds paid to suppliers as advances will be frozen, he believes. The expert does not expect a serious restriction of spare part supplies, but the change in chains may affect prices.

Over the last three years, the UAE has become the main re-export hub for the Russian market. According to UN data cited by Aleksey Ivanov, owner of the Alliance Trucks commercial vehicle dealer network, in 2024, supplies from the Emirates to the Russian Federation amounted to $4.43 billion. These are mainly construction machinery, auto parts, electronics, and parallel import goods — Western brands that cannot be bought directly. To achieve this, Russian business has opened more than 13.5 thousand companies in the UAE.

"The scheme worked through two channels: by sea — in containers from the port of Jebel Ali to Novorossiysk and Saint Petersburg, and by air — more than 200 weekly flights. Now both channels are effectively suspended: tankers and container ships have not passed through the Strait of Hormuz since 1 March, and Dubai airport is damaged as a result of strikes. Simultaneously, the International North-South Transport Corridor passing through Iran is under threat," he explained.

According to him, the greatest difficulties may be experienced by companies working with spare parts for construction and industrial machinery, as well as with electronics — these were the goods that went through the UAE first and foremost.

"In a prolonged conflict, local supply restrictions on individual items are possible, although for now we are talking about weeks rather than months. This may entail an increase in logistical costs: insurance premiums on cargo from the risk zone have already grown, and alternative routes — through Turkey, Kazakhstan, or directly from China — are longer and more expensive. This is translated into the price of the final product," Aleksey Ivanov noted.

In his opinion, the conflict in the Middle East has exposed the vulnerability of concentrating supplies through one hub: those who worked with the UAE without alternatives now find themselves in a difficult position. For honest business, this is a signal to diversify supply chains, the expert concluded.

It all renders it clear that the situation in the Middle East has a very direct impact on logistics, not only in the conflict zone but also on other, even safe, directions. Besides the fact that shipping lines are urgently changing routes and the closed sky regime prevents the export of cargo from Persian Gulf countries by air, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz is raising prices for oil and oil products, which will be reflected in fuel costs and thus in logistical tariffs for all modes of transport. Land delivery of goods between Russia and China could also become significantly more complicated, as part of the cargo between Asian and European countries will be redirected to the railway.

Thus, the almost week-long military conflict in the Middle East has already significantly affected logistics. Naturally, the situation remains most difficult directly in the Persian Gulf countries; however, in the future, it risks affecting cargo delivery in all directions, including those far from the zone of the incident.

Moreover, it is completely non-obvious what other consequences of what is currently happening in the Middle East might be...

What is already known is that shipping lines are, where possible, again changing routes, choosing the longer path along the African coast via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the short path through the Suez Canal. This lengthens the transport time of goods by at least 10 days and, of course, increases transport costs.

However, due to Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, this route has already been quite familiar to maritime companies for about two years (a logistical giant like Maersk only began resuming passage through the Suez Canal literally a few months ago), and therefore this factor alone would not have a very significant impact on rates.

True, this time, it is quite likely that operators not only from Western but also from Asian countries, including China, will redirect their vessels around the danger zone.

However, maritime companies are simultaneously introducing surcharges to tariffs — for war risks and for ensuring security. Additional fees depend on the specific line and the type of container transported, but on average amount to $1.5–2 thousand per TEU and about $3 thousand per FEU; for a reefer, they can reach $4 thousand.

In the sea delivery of goods to Russia, the rate increase mainly affects routes to the port of Novorossiysk and ports in the north-west of the country. However, in the future, due to the reorientation of cargo flows, the situation may affect delivery to Far Eastern ports as well.

At the same time, transport with Persian Gulf countries located in the conflict zone has effectively stopped. Most shipping companies are cancelling calls at Middle Eastern ports, which, in a situation of closed skies, makes it practically impossible to export cargo on these routes, while a significant portion of electronic goods, for example, went to Russia specifically from the UAE.

Plus, the ports of Jebel Ali in the UAE and Bandar Abbas in Iran, which are currently not operating, have become important for Russian transshipment in recent years (with the introduction of sanctions restrictions). Consequently, for the delivery of goods to Russia from South-East Asian countries, other routes will also have to be chosen, increasing the load on land options or Far Eastern ports.

The most difficult situation remains in the Strait of Hormuz, whose impact on world logistics (and beyond) will certainly not keep anyone waiting.

It is through this strait that approximately one-fifth of global oil and oil product exports are carried out. Its blocking by Iran has already affected oil quotes. While before the start of the military conflict Brent was trading roughly at a level slightly above $70 per barrel, starting from 2 March, prices have steadily crossed the $80 per barrel barrier.

That is: in just a week, oil prices have grown by somewhere around 15%. At the same time, experts expect a jump to $100 per barrel and do not rule out even a record $200.

Along with oil, naturally, fuel also becomes more expensive, the costs for which carriers will certainly begin to include in their tariffs. And this means that the cost of cargo delivery will increase for all modes of transport and in all directions.

In addition, as market representatives fear, land routes from Asia to Europe will begin to enjoy increased demand. Instead of the sea bypass route along the African coast, part of the cargo in the "China – EU countries" communication will be redirected to the railway.

And in conditions of increased load and limited carrying capacity of the Eastern Polygon of Russian Railways, this will, firstly, provoke a rise in rates and, secondly, cause delays in the delivery of goods, including to Russian regions, since part of the capacity will still be given over to transit...

What is noteworthy is that the start of the military conflict in the Middle East coincided with the end of the Chinese New Year.

That is: having endured the high season in logistics due to all types of New Year holidays, rates for goods delivery should have been demonstrating a significant decrease right now.

For example, according to Dmitry Sukhoversha, director of multimodal transportation at FM Logistic in Russia, the weighted average air freight rate on the route from Beijing to Moscow for 1000+ cargo (kg, chargeable weight) grew twofold from September to December 2025, to 6 USD/kg; however, by February 2026, before the start of the conflict, it had already decreased by a third.

The same was observed until recently on other popular routes between Russia and the PRC.

As Kirill Lakhin, head of logistics at JSC Unitrade, notes, usually the cost of transporting one 40-foot container within the Changsha-Moscow railway service remains relatively stable, with slight fluctuations within 2–5%, until the beginning of October. From October, tariffs gradually increase, adding approximately 15% by the New Year, then decrease by somewhere around 5–7%, approach December maximums again a few weeks before Chinese New Year, and then go down again — until the next high season in logistics.

In the road transport segment, during the peak period on the eve of New Year holidays and Chinese New Year, the rate increase can reach even 50%; however, with the end of the high season, they return to normal values.

"On the Shanghai-Nakhodka sea route, the freight dynamics are smoother and more predictable: from November to mid-January, rates increase in the range of 10–15%. Two weeks before Chinese New Year, a gradual downward correction begins, and tariffs gradually return to November levels," Kirill Lakhin continues.

In other words, the global market was expecting a decrease in the cost of logistics right now. But in light of recent events, the rate dynamics become unpredictable.

Reported by Izvestia (Russia), additional reporting by Trans (Russia).