The Eurozone industrial sector recorded growth again in March 2024. Manufacturing PMI reached 51.6 (+0.8 points month-on-month), a 45-month high. However, the key trend in March relates to deteriorating delivery conditions. Component delivery times increased the most since August 2022, while production cost inflation soared to its highest level since October 2022. Conversely, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 (-1.3 points month-on-month). As in Europe, dynamics were affected by supply chain disruptions and rising raw material prices. Nevertheless, new orders (including export orders) for enterprises continued to grow.
According to preliminary results for January-March, China-Europe-China rail container transport volume grew by 29% year-on-year. This growth was driven by the Central Eurasian Corridor (36% year-on-year), while dynamics across other corridors were mixed.
Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a steady level without sharp fluctuations. Shippers are acting cautiously and continue to book space at current rates to minimize risks of supply disruptions and avoid even more unfavorable conditions during the peak summer season.
Average cost of China-Europe rail transport in April: ~$7,000/FEU (SOC). Container rental cost is ~$1,200. Since the beginning of the year, the cost increase has reached ~20%. According to freight forwarders, rate hikes for departures from eastern provinces (Yiwu, Jinhua) are expected during the month due to train space shortages and rising equipment costs. Space is virtually non-existent in southern China; shippers are advised to send shipments via Chongqing and Chengdu. In Zhengzhou, the April departure plan was reduced, application acceptance is suspended until April 20, and price increases are possible. In Wuhan, space is allocated through auctions with a markup of ~$500.
WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of 02.04.2026, stood at $2,543/FEU (24% month-on-month, 10% year-on-year). WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $3,529/FEU. Rates on the Asia-Europe route remain relatively stable despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Drewry expects spot rates to rise in the coming weeks against a backdrop of more expensive bunkers and the introduction of emergency fuel surcharges. Declared quotes for April on the China-Northern Europe route are at higher levels than current indices, reaching $4,000/FEU in the services of individual carriers (e.g., COSCO).
Futures traders expect China-Northern Europe sea freight rates to rise to $3,150/FEU by the end of July 2026.
As of the morning of 08.04.2026, Brent futures fell by more than 15% to ~$90/barrel following news of a two-week truce and Iran's promise to open the Strait of Hormuz. VLSFO marine fuel in Singapore fell to <$900 per tonne. Earlier, volatility in commodity markets triggered a rise in fuel surcharges for delivery across Europe, increasing logistics costs on the final leg of the China-Europe route. In EU countries, the fuel surcharge rose by 5-7%.
According to sources, CMA CGM agreed with Iran on the safe withdrawal of 14 of its container ships blocked in the Persian Gulf. The first vessel has already successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with another 6 awaiting permission. Earlier, 3 Chinese vessels, including 2 COSCO container ships, passed through the strait. 15 MSC and 6 Maersk vessels remain in the conflict zone.
Sea freight: stabilization amid absence of significant external changes
Current situation and near-term outlook: the market maintains a balance of supply and demand, and price changes are driven by rising operating costs.
Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a steady level without sharp fluctuations. Shippers are acting cautiously and continue to book space at current rates to minimize risks of supply disruptions and avoid even more unfavorable conditions during the peak summer season.
A difficult situation persists in Asian and European ports. Thick fog disrupted operations in Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao; delays in Chinese ports have doubled since early March. Asian transit hubs are operating with terminal utilization at 80-85% and above. Rotterdam and Antwerp are seeing an increase in container storage times due to bad weather and vessel congestion. Preconditions for equipment shortages in Asia are appearing.
WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of 02.04.2026, stood at $2,543/FEU (24% month-on-month, 10% year-on-year). WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $3,529/FEU. Rates on the Asia-Europe route remain relatively stable despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Drewry expects spot rates to rise in the coming weeks against a backdrop of more expensive bunkers and the introduction of emergency fuel surcharges. Average quotes on the China-Northern Europe route for April are declared at $2,700/FEU with a wide price spread depending on the carrier: from $2,250/FEU to $4,000/FEU.
As of 07.04.2026, the price of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore was slightly less than $900/t (+66% since the start of the conflict). According to S&P Global estimates, less than three weeks of fuel reserves remain in the world's largest bunkering hub, Singapore.
Medium and long-term outlook: the deteriorating geopolitical background has further reduced the likelihood of shipping resuming through the Suez Canal. Even after the conflict ends, it may take up to six months to assess the situation.
The Russian manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.3 points in March from 49.5 points in February. The deterioration in industrial business activity was associated with a noticeable reduction in production volumes and new orders.
In turn, Russia's services PMI dropped below 50 points for the first time in six months, standing at 49.5 points, reflecting a contraction in the sector amid weakening consumer demand, declining customer purchasing power, and rising economic uncertainty. The composite PMI also moved into the decline zone, confirming a general cooling of the private sector. Companies note a decrease in new orders and are more actively reducing staff amid weak sales. Inflationary pressure is gradually decreasing; however, the persistence of elevated inflation expectations will be considered by the Bank of Russia when making decisions on the key rate. The decline in business activity and consumer demand creates a restrictive environment for the growth of import supplies from China.
In March 2026, the sales volume of new passenger cars in Russia amounted to 104,278 units, a 30.6% year-on-year increase. For 1Q2026, 264,909 cars were sold (+7.3% year-on-year). The growth is driven by the realization of deferred demand, the decreased attractiveness of deposits, and the quarterly fulfillment of dealer plans. The sales growth was accompanied by an increase in imports: 33.3 thousand new cars were imported into Russia in March (+40% year-on-year), with over 60% coming from China.
Current rates in import communication within the 1520 mm gauge: $3,350/FEU Altynkol/Dostyk – Moscow; $4,000/FEU Zamyn-Uud – Moscow; $3,700/FEU Zabaikalsk – Moscow. Delays persist at border crossings for trains proceeding to Russia. The situation is expected to improve in the beginning of the second half of the month. Additionally, market players note an increase in the cost of container allocation in China; prices vary from province to province, but the cost of the container itself is currently a significant driver of rate increases.
The first International Transport and Logistics Forum, which took place from April 1 to 3, concluded its work in Saint Petersburg. The main focus of the forum was the Russian-Chinese logistics leg as the primary driver of international transport growth. The forum recorded a shift from the logic of individual export routes to the formation of a stable joint transport framework with digital crossings, multimodal solutions, and reduced delivery times. 40 agreements were signed as part of the event.
Delo Group and Rostec will consider the possibility of building containers in Russia. A memorandum of cooperation was signed by the companies on the sidelines of the ITLF.
According to FESCO, the level of containerization in Russia has recovered to early 2022 levels, standing at about 7%. However, this is many times lower than in the world's leading economies. A key future driver could be the containerization of agro-industrial cargo and fertilizers.
Against the background of a continued decline in loading, market participants are frustrated by the lack of changes in Russian Railways regulatory policy and maintain pessimistic sentiments. The index reached -22 points, which corresponds to a "strong alarm" zone.
Reported by Index1520.
