The rapid development of the economies of Asia, Africa, and South America, and their active integration into the world economy, are leading to increased cargo volumes. Significant trade traffic generated by these states has become a key driver for all global trade growth. However, due to sanctions, "tariff wars," and armed conflicts, logistics are becoming increasingly complex. The significance of the Global South was clearly demonstrated by the aggression against Iran: the disruption of supply chains in the region led to a sharp rise in commodity prices and increased transport costs.
According to a December estimate by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the volume of world trade in 2025 grew by 7% compared to the previous year, exceeding $35 trillion for the first time despite geopolitical tensions. The most noticeable increase was in turnover between Global South countries (Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean) — by 8%. For instance, exports from East Asian states added 9%, and trade between them grew by 10% year-on-year. Imports of African states increased by 10%, while exports grew by 6%. Trade between South American countries rose by 7%.
According to the consulting firm TeDo, the share of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) exports in world trade rose from 15% in 2008 to 20% in 2024, while the share of ASEAN countries grew from 6% to 9% over the same period.
The significance of the Global South in global trade continues to grow. Southeast Asian countries possess cheap labour, Africa is rich in natural resources, and India is actively developing its digital economy, TeDo analysts point out. These countries are also gaining importance as consumers of goods due to population growth. In Africa, for instance, every fourth person on the planet will live there by 2050 (currently it is one in six).
The bulk of international trade is handled by maritime transport. According to the International Maritime Organization, it provides about 80% of all international cargo transport. According to Clarksons, world maritime trade grew by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 12.9 billion tonnes. Over the ten years from 2016 to 2025, this figure increased by 14%. UNCTAD forecasts that maritime trade volume will grow by an average of 2% annually between 2026 and 2030.
According to Sergey Kazachkov, a partner in investment and capital markets at Kept, the Global South already accounts for about half of all world maritime transport. Expert notes that the growth of developing economies is the main driver of international trade. Dmitry Arestov, project manager of the Engineering practice at Strategy Partners, agrees that the growth of markets in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East has become one of the primary drivers of global cargo flow.
Bulk cargo forms the basis of maritime transport: coal, fertilizers, iron ore, bauxite and other ores, and grain. The second most important segment is oil, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Container cargo (cars, electronics, food, clothing, footwear, etc.) is one of the most high-tech and fast-developing segments. According to Clarksons, the most significant growth in 2025 was in the transport of cars (8.3%), LNG (5%), and containers (4%). Shipments of grain and oil added 1.5% and 0.6% respectively.
The development of Global South economies is leading to a redirection of cargo flows, UNCTAD data suggests. Oil exports to Asia in recent years have primarily come from Brazil, Guyana, and the USA. LNG and liquefied petroleum gases from the United States are also increasingly supplied to Asia, especially India and China. African countries, particularly Guinea, provide significant bauxite supplies to the PRC. China actively imports coal from Colombia and Russia. European importers increased oil purchases from the Middle East after Russian supplies decreased in 2022. There is also a steady increase in container transport volumes to developing regions.
According to UNCTAD, Global South countries own about one-third of all commercial vessels in the world. TeDo estimates that the global container market also continues to turn toward Asia: in 2018–2024, shipments to Asian countries accounted for more than 90% of the container market's growth. TeDo warns that the continuation of this trend could lead to trade imbalances and a search for new directions for returning containers to Asia, resulting in dumping and reduced carrier margins.
Containerized cargo is the main growing type of transport for Global South countries, already accounting for about 18% of all cargo traffic, according to Sergey Kazachkov. However, these countries also maintain consistently high volumes of oil and LNG transport, he notes. In the cargo turnover of major Indian ports for the 2024/25 financial year, oil and petroleum products took the lead, followed by container cargo and coal, notes Dmitry Arestov.
Due to the emergence of new production and consumption centres, as well as the growing interconnectedness of regional economies, supply routes are becoming more complex. This is evidenced by growth rates in cargo turnover expressed in tonne-kilometres outstripping growth rates of cargo flow in tonnes. According to Clarksons, in 2023 transport volume grew by 2.6% while cargo turnover grew by 4.9%; in 2024, the figures were 2.6% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, cargo turnover increased by 1.7%. This indicator is growing most strongly for containerized cargo, LNG, and petroleum products.
Dmitry Baranov, leading expert at Finam Management, believes that the development of Global South countries, including India, leads to changes in habitual routes, which may decrease the importance of traditional transport corridors. Geopolitical factors—military conflicts and sanctions—are important drivers for the redistribution of cargo flows and the complication of supply chains.
The vulnerability of critical maritime paths like the Red Sea, Suez Canal, and Hormuz Strait became evident amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict in the 2020s. The latest example is the combat actions of the USA and Israel against Iran in March 2026. As a result, carriers seek alternative routes. For example, the German company Hapag-Lloyd offered a land route through the UAE and Saudi Arabia as an alternative to Red Sea supplies. It connected the ports of Jebel Ali (UAE), Dammam, and Jubail (Saudi Arabia) in the Persian Gulf with the port of Jeddah in the Red Sea.
Disruptions to shipping routes lead to longer transport distances and increased costs for insurance, freight, fuel, etc. For instance, bypassing the Cape of Good Hope (along the African coast) increases voyage duration by approximately 30%. In 2024, the cost of maritime container transport between East Asia and North America increased by 14.7%, and between East Asia and Europe by 10.2%.
The armed conflict around Iran led to a de facto blockade of the Hormuz Strait, connecting the Persian Gulf with the global ocean. Regional countries belonging to the Global South export not only oil and gas through it, but also fertilizers, aluminium, etc., while importing steel, grain, and other goods. Clarksons estimates that about 10% of all global maritime trade passes through the strait, including 38% of maritime oil supplies, 20% of petroleum products and LNG, 10–15% of chemical products, and 10% of cars. The military confrontation resulted in a price jump for oil, gas, petroleum products, and aluminium, while tanker and bulker freight rates reached record levels. According to the Xeneta platform, average spot container rates on the China—UAE line soared by 19% to $1,785 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) after the conflict began.
Sanctions also lead to increased supply costs and longer routes due to intermediaries, transit ports, "ship-to-ship" cargo transfers at sea, and other labour-intensive and costly measures. Dmitry Arestov believes that the complication of logistics is the key factor currently affecting the transport industry. Logistics are becoming more expensive and sensitive to disruptions; cargo often follows bypass schemes rather than the shortest path. Another consequence of sanctions is the illegal seizure of "shadow fleet" vessels: in 2026, several tankers working with shippers from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia were detained by the USA and France.
Russia began actively restructuring its logistics as early as 2022 following the imposition of anti-Russian sanctions. Supplies of oil, coal, steel, non-ferrous and precious metals, diamonds, and many other goods were redirected to China, India, Turkey, and other Asian countries. The share of Brazil, India, and African countries in fertilizer supplies grew. Meanwhile, India and especially China became important suppliers of cars, specialized machinery, machine tools, and equipment for Russia.
Russian companies began to use alternative routes more actively—for example, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, which includes the Northern Sea Route. Using alternative logistics routes increases the security of foreign trade and opens opportunities to enter new markets—for both Russia and its partners.
The INSTC, intended for supplies to Iran and India, is considered an alternative to Suez Canal supplies. However, the development of new logistics routes requires ensuring the appropriate state of infrastructure. TeDo analysts estimate that in the Arctic region in 2022, the average wear-and-tear level of basic facilities was more than 80%.
For full use of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, experts consider it expedient to develop the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk transport hubs, the Eastern transport and logistics hub, and to build bunkering and maintenance bases in the port of Dikson, as well as the Northern Latitudinal Railway—a mainline connecting the Yamal Peninsula with the Urals and Northwest Russia. Additionally, massive investments in the construction of a cargo and icebreaker fleet will be required.
Global South countries also understand the need to invest in transport infrastructure. Logistics investments by these states grew by 20–30% over several years, notes Dmitry Baranov from Finam Management. Funds are going toward developing port hubs and multimodal transport corridors.
By Vitaly Kotov for Expert (Russia).
